Trying to determine the chances that another player has a higher pocket pair than you is easier than determining whether or not your pocket has a chance of winning. It’s easy: if, for example, you have a pair of jacks, the only hands that are available that can beat you are a pair of queens, kings, and aces; therefore, you’re in more or less a good shape, although it’s not as strong as if you have a pair of aces or a pair of kings. This is important because sometimes, having a high pair will get you to win, during those times when the hands that appear are hands that will only compete based on high cards. As for determining whether or not your pocket pair has chances of winning, there is a lengthy computation for that, but for you beginners, you might want to consider an easier way and then learn the computation later when you get the hang of things.

First off, remember these values: your probability of coming up with a set is 10.8 percent; of flopping a set of better, 11.8 percent; of getting a full house or quads by the flop, 0.99 percent (which is a very small percentage so watch out); and of making a set or better by the time you reach the river, a hefty 19% (it is hefty compared to the other values). Next, remember that the lower the pocket pair, the higher the chances that your pair will NOT hit the flop at all. You start with the aces at zero percent – that means it will hit the flop all the time – and then followed by the kings at 20.67%, and then the queens at 37.84%, and the probability goes up until the lower cards, where it is at a little over 88 percent. You see, then, why having a pair does not guarantee a win – although the difference between one pocket pair and another decreases as the value of the cards go down, the difference starts off really big (from zero to almost twenty-one percent, if you will notice) that by the time we get to the lower pocket pairs, the probability is so high already that it’s already going to be difficult for you to come up with a good hand. Finally, remember to recompute the other odds when something changes in the game, because you never know when your chances of winning increase or decrease. After all, poker can be quite unpredictable from a mathematical point of view.

Of course, if you want a shortcut, then there is one, but it’s something that you may end up regretting if the cards that appear work in your favor. If you have a pair of nines or lower, then fold. This would be my recommendation for those beginners who are not yet willing to try and take a risk, or for those players who are not yet that knowledgeable in the strategies of the game.

Let’s give an example. Say you are playing a game, and you have reached that point where there four of you staying for the river – the other three have folded. Player A goes all in, and so does Player B, and you do as well, and that gives a total of $300 in the pot. Let’s say Player D only has $10. His odds of winning the pot would be 30 to 1, which is not that good because if the other players have gone all-in, chances are they are either very confident with their bluff, or they have really good hands. Still, given the odds, Player D decides to go all-in as well, and gives his final $10. Even if his hand has a good chance of being a winning hand, the chances are still against him because the other players may be able to get higher hands; and while he only has to win 1 in 30 games to make profit, which initially is a good odd, he still has to consider the fact that his opponents were not afraid to go all-in, which means they are very confident with how high their hands are.

Then again, is it a total sin to be “pot-committed”? Well, here is the thing: The only time that it is not a sin is if you know that you have a very strong hand to play by the time the river comes. Otherwise, it is not smart to throw in all your money into the pot without considering whether or not you will win. If you’re a seasoned player who wants to take risks, take twice before going this extreme when it comes to placing bets in the pot.

There is a way. You can calculate the reverse implied odds. This is the opposite of implied odds, where you try to figure out how much you stand to win after making a draw. The good part here is that this does not actually require actual numerical calculation. As the name suggests, you are looking at what possibilities are there. Say for instance you have a hand of 7h and 8s. The flop then gives you 6h 9s 4h. Take these into consideration then: if a 5h or a Th is next, then that would have given your straight, which is a good thing. The bad news is there is a probability that one of your opponents also has cards that will form a flush, which will trump your straight. Also, if any tens come up, then that would still give you a straight, but others might get a higher straight than you as well, so watch out. Consider, then, just how high your hand is, and what possible hands your opponents may be forming before you continue fattening that pot that you may or may not win.

Why is it just as important to consider how much you stand to lose as learning how much you stand to win? The answer is quite clear and simple, if you still cannot see it: it’s all part of the game. Considering the risks will help you figure out whether or not it’s a risk you are willing to take, and will keep you grounded if you come up with really good pot odds and equity. Not only is it wise for your gameplay, it’s also wise for your playing attitude.

Let’s start with the pot odds. To calculate the odds, you have to know how much is in the pot.  Make sure to do this while the betting is happening, because if you wait until the betting is over before adding up the total then you will get confused. Say you are playing a limit Texas Hold’Em game with a $1/$2 limit. After your hands are initially dealt, a betting round takes place. Say you bet $2, and the blinds called the bet, then you would have $6 already. Then the flop is dealt, and the small blind bets $1. That makes $7. If the big blind calls, then that’s $8. For you to call, you need to put in $1, and that $1 is what you need to possibly win the pot. That, then, would give you the first ratio you will need: your chances of making a profit, as the pot presents, are 8 to 1.

Of course, this is just an initial number that you work with. To get your odds of getting a hand that you need to win, you have to count the cards. First count your outs, or the cards that you need to get a winning hand. To do so, think of how many values you will be needing, and then multiply them by four (for the four suits per value). For instance, you have an Ah-Kh combination, and the table has a 3h-Js-Qs. You will be needing a 10 and a 9 or a 9 and and 8 to play for a straight, so that’s three values, times the four suits, which would give you a total of 12 outs. Then you take into account the cards you’ve seen: there are three on the table, and two in your hands; therefore, out of the fifty-two, you’ve seen five. There are 47 cards left to see. Out of those 47, 12 will give you a winning number. Take these two numbers, and divide them to get your odds. You’d get a number of 3.92, rounded off to the nearest tenths, and so your odds here are 3.92 is to 1. Go back to the odds the pot gave you now – it gave you 8 is to 1, which are actually better odds, so you should definitely invest that dollar to try and win the pot.

Now that you’ve calculated your pot odds, let’s move on to equity. Equity is where you calculate your chances of winning the pot itself. This is much simpler than calculating pot odds, so don’t fret. All it involves is simple multiplication and a few rules. Multiply your outs by four on the flop, and by two on the turn, and you will get your equity. This applies to outs that are less than or equal to eight though. For those higher than eight, if it is the out for the flop, there will be a discrepancy, and so to make sure you get the closest value possible, remember this formula:

[number of outs (N) * 4] – (N – 8)

Let’s take the example above. We have 12 outs by the flop, so let’s calculate: (12*4) – (12-8) would be equal to 48-4, which would be 44. Your equity, then, is 44%.  To put this to use, you use these values as your source: if the card you desire by the flop does not turn up, then you recalculate by the turn, and if the odds are still not high for you, then you have to fold. Just keep in mind your math lessons and then you’ll be just fine.