Odds of the Poker Pot
What you will notice about poker players is that they are no rocket scientists and theater majors, but they are good at bluffing. They are good at bluffing because of their skills, one of which does not take a rocket scientist to figure out – basic arithmetic. The really good poker players can calculate both pot odds and equity as the game goes on.
Let’s start with the pot odds. To calculate the odds, you have to know how much is in the pot. Make sure to do this while the betting is happening, because if you wait until the betting is over before adding up the total then you will get confused. Say you are playing a limit Texas Hold’Em game with a $1/$2 limit. After your hands are initially dealt, a betting round takes place. Say you bet $2, and the blinds called the bet, then you would have $6 already. Then the flop is dealt, and the small blind bets $1. That makes $7. If the big blind calls, then that’s $8. For you to call, you need to put in $1, and that $1 is what you need to possibly win the pot. That, then, would give you the first ratio you will need: your chances of making a profit, as the pot presents, are 8 to 1.
Of course, this is just an initial number that you work with. To get your odds of getting a hand that you need to win, you have to count the cards. First count your outs, or the cards that you need to get a winning hand. To do so, think of how many values you will be needing, and then multiply them by four (for the four suits per value). For instance, you have an Ah-Kh combination, and the table has a 3h-Js-Qs. You will be needing a 10 and a 9 or a 9 and and 8 to play for a straight, so that’s three values, times the four suits, which would give you a total of 12 outs. Then you take into account the cards you’ve seen: there are three on the table, and two in your hands; therefore, out of the fifty-two, you’ve seen five. There are 47 cards left to see. Out of those 47, 12 will give you a winning number. Take these two numbers, and divide them to get your odds. You’d get a number of 3.92, rounded off to the nearest tenths, and so your odds here are 3.92 is to 1. Go back to the odds the pot gave you now – it gave you 8 is to 1, which are actually better odds, so you should definitely invest that dollar to try and win the pot.
Now that you’ve calculated your pot odds, let’s move on to equity. Equity is where you calculate your chances of winning the pot itself. This is much simpler than calculating pot odds, so don’t fret. All it involves is simple multiplication and a few rules. Multiply your outs by four on the flop, and by two on the turn, and you will get your equity. This applies to outs that are less than or equal to eight though. For those higher than eight, if it is the out for the flop, there will be a discrepancy, and so to make sure you get the closest value possible, remember this formula:
[number of outs (N) * 4] – (N – 8)
Let’s take the example above. We have 12 outs by the flop, so let’s calculate: (12*4) – (12-8) would be equal to 48-4, which would be 44. Your equity, then, is 44%. To put this to use, you use these values as your source: if the card you desire by the flop does not turn up, then you recalculate by the turn, and if the odds are still not high for you, then you have to fold. Just keep in mind your math lessons and then you’ll be just fine.